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Shootin' The Bull
"Shootin' The Bull" is a daily futures and commodity market commentary, written by Chris Swift, commodities broker and founder of Swift Trading Company in Nashville, Tennessee.
With over 30 years of experience in the commodity futures industry, Chris's technical and fundamental analysis is provided for his clients and readers in an attempt to make a more informed trading decision.
The Mid-Day Cattle Comment is a market commentary written during trading hours, providing subscribers with pertinent, real time information to help readers make a more informed trading decision.
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“Shootin’ The Bull”
End of Day Market Recap
by Christopher B. Swift
3/18/2025
Live Cattle:
Cattle feeders appear as the sector assuming the most risk of any at the moment. Whether feeding cattle in a commercial, or less than a thousand head yard, the assumption of risk by paying current spreads between starting product and finished relies solely upon a higher price for fat cattle. Boxes have risen in price as well, but simply due to the purposeful manipulation of the packer. The next step of pushing more expensive cattle into slaughter will be pushing the more expensive beef to the consumer. At this point in time, it does not appear the consumer is willing to pay more for much of anything.
Feeder Cattle:
Once on feed, the steer is pretty much there until slaughtered. This leaves little to no wiggle room for cattle feeders for which continually place more expensive inventory. The back grounder has wiggle room as those cattle, whether the desired weight or not, could be moved quickly. The manipulation of every sector is believed a necessity in order to find a profit margin. Unfortunately, manipulation can cause great strain on various parts being manipulated. Therefore, the more need for manipulation, the more it leads me to anticipate a sector or more to cause great disruption in the industry. I don't expect the cattle herd to ever expand as it has in the past. Even then, I don't think a previous level has ever been reached. I think at best it will move laterally as beef production is not anticipated to be impacted due to more heifers being held back for breeding, because they will start killing more cows. Since the consumer is not in as much demand for a lot of fed beef cuts, the cow meat to mix with fat will suffice the hamburger trade going forward. Since I think it will be difficult to increase supplies to any great extent, I would anticipate a decline in cattle to come from a decline in consumer demand. Where is consumer demand? It is more than difficult to assess due to the manipulation of packers towards slaughter. Of one thing, if they can't move what little they are producing, cattle will be considered way over valued.
Corn:
Corn was lower. Corn and beans remain in a somewhat down trend. I am negative beans but not corn. The rally in wheat leads me to want to market wheat if needed.
Energy/Bonds:
Energy has been higher today, but sold off sharply by days end. If energy resumes its down trend, with no further increases in supply, it suggests demand is slipping. If energy demand slips, it will strengthen my analysis that the US is looking for some harder times.
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