Shootin' The Bull
"Shootin' The Bull" is a daily futures and commodity market commentary, written by Chris Swift, commodities broker and founder of Swift Trading Company in Nashville, Tennessee.
With over 30 years of experience in the commodity futures industry, Chris's technical and fundamental analysis is provided for his clients and readers in an attempt to make a more informed trading decision.
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“Shootin’ The Bull”
Commodity Market Comments
by Christopher B. Swift
Futures are soft, but that is about the extent of it. Volume is drying up and after traders digest Friday's information, Monday of next week may be the only day left of the month to trade. There will be some to stick around Wednesday and a few to show up on Friday, but trading will most likely be subdued. I see little to anticipate in price direction. The congestion currently isn't necessarily bearish. At this juncture, were a new high to be made in the fats, I would recommend looking at the summer months to see if they are at an advantageous price level. The previous recommendations should have wrapped up your marketing's for February and April.
This years feeder contracts are in the history books now. Although I know there has been wider ranges from high to low or vice versa, but I can't recall a range this wide in both directions, in a contract life span for feeders. I anticipate prediction of next most probable move to be difficult for several weeks. The momentum appears to have stalled in feeders and with the years marketing coming to an end soon, there may not be much to trade on. Like the fats, supply will be a lesser ingredient to my analysis. Unlike the fats, the consumer demand side will be filtered through the fat market into the feeders, rather than a direct consumer impact. With seemingly nothing new to add, I continue to anticipate a decline in the index to approximately $140.98.
Hogs were sharply higher on the open. Closed slightly higher on the day.
Corn was stagnate today. A little higher, but nothing to write home about.
I am unsure whether I am wrong all together, or just for the moment, but the reversal of the reversal has transpired and has produced significant price fluctuation in both directions. The over $.10 move down has been erased up to one penny of it at today's high. That move took me by surprise. Volatility is rampant in energy at this time. Both crude oil and gasoline have posted new highs above Tuesday's high. Diesel fuel remains just under that previous high. Without a doubt, this has my attention, but I am unsure whether to unbuckle from my previous analysis this quickly. For the time being, I'll stick with only topping off tanks when necessary.
US Treasury Bonds:
Bonds softened slightly today. I still believe they have reversed to the upside. I have no change of opinions on this market from Wednesday. Something I mentioned in the mid day cattle comment today may have some input towards the analysis of equities. In my opinion, the consumer is riding at the top of the economic roller coaster at this time. Having seen years on end of wage and employment growth, the highest possible wealth factor if tied to the equities market, exceptionally low interest rates and little, if any energy price inflation. So, were the Fed to gain a handle on the economy, the tariff issue resolved, and impeachment proceeding's fade, how much better would or could the consumer be? Is there a higher level of economic prosperity to lift all ships with the rising tide? I don't know. I am sure there may be, but the US lives in a world of glut as it is. Would further prosperity begin to reduce the glut, or just keep it status quo? Again, I don't know. Here is something I do know. I know that if the consumer feels as if they are starting to see a reduction in wages or employment, a rise in energy prices, a rise in interest rates, or a decline of their equity portfolio, they will begin to reassess their financial position and make changes quickly. In my opinion alone, with perceived wealth at the highest level when associated to the equity markets, your 401K, Roth IRA, or individual stock account, if it begins to go down, the rush to secure either what is left, or as much of the gravy as possible, it could start a slide that may not be just a correction.