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Shootin' The Bull
"Shootin' The Bull" is a daily futures and commodity market commentary, written by Chris Swift, commodities broker and founder of Swift Trading Company in Nashville, Tennessee.
With over 30 years of experience in the commodity futures industry, Chris's technical and fundamental analysis is provided for his clients and readers in an attempt to make a more informed trading decision.
The Mid-Day Cattle Comment is a market commentary written during trading hours, providing subscribers with pertinent, real time information to help readers make a more informed trading decision.
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“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
11/26/2025
Live Cattle:
Convergence of basis is taking place quickly. Futures traders are believed to have pushed the basis spread to widths that may be difficult for the cash markets to achieve in the current time frame. Last week's announcement of the Tyson plant closure was a surprise and will make for some adjustments for slaughter going forward. Unfortunately, what this pointed out is that with so few of cattle, the next step is anticipated to be a contraction in production. Without the increase of inventory from the South, I anticipate some cattle feeders to be in a like position as some of the packers were in. This may still take place, even when the border is opened. The southern border appears to be the last of the unwinding of unusual events that have taken place over the past 5 years.
Feeder Cattle:
Traders felt the basis was too wide as well and quickly started to close. I anticipate more convergence of the basis. The gaps left on the free fall will be targets for bulls ready to get started climbing a wall of worry.
Corn:
Printing of money is what made grains go up from 2020 to 2022. There was no real increase of demand or usage, or lack of supply, just money to buy things. This suggests that it will take a huge amount of demand to keep prices higher, or if taking a cue from cattle, reduce acres and see what prices materialize. While I don't think there are too many producers, there is too much land in production for the demand, with south America attempting to gain more and more market share.
Energy:
Energy remains mixed. Diesel fuel continues to be the weakest, but crude oil appears to have resumed its bear market.
Bonds:
Bonds were plus on the day and continuing to creep higher. There still appears enough divide between Wall and Main Street to keep something significant from taking place. Were the upper end to begin to falter, it would lead me to anticipate significant weakness, if not recession. If the stimulations the President is attempting begin to lift the lower end of the spectrum, bonds could plummet on a surge of inflation.
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