“Shootin’ The Bull”TM

by Christopher B Swift

9/4/2026

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The "Shootin' the Bull" ™ and Mid-Day Cattle Comment will be transmitted via email and no longer available on our website Monday through Thursday.  Friday's Weekly Market Recap will still be posted as normal. As a client, both commentaries are included free of charge with our brokerage services. Subscribers to the commentary package will be charged $300.00 annually. A 30-day trial will be offered with billing instructions and payment. Please click on Mid Day Cattle Comment tab on top of webpage for that.  

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Weekly Recap:

 

In my opinion, there was no shortage of volatility or price expanse this week.  I find myself questioning every decision I make, as price fluctuation in $5.00 to $9.00 ranges daily, and sometimes multiple times through the day, can have a dramatic impact on your psyche.  Even the best laid plans have been subjected to questionable price movement.  So, as I have been attempting to do so myself, attempt to give yourself a little leeway.  The cattle/beef industry is in transition.  Relationships between cattle and beef have become distorted, as consumers began pulling back on consumption and willingness to pay.  Grocers, restaurants, and packers have been attempting to keep consumers coming back, and beef supplied, but still having to manage razor thin margins when exist, and contend to keep losses to a minimum.  This in turn has caused the relationship between cattle and beef to become distorted, with cattlemen continuing to bid whatever it took to own cattle as the deterioration continued. I viewed this situation as a very inordinate time frame of exceptional bullishness from one side, and cautious reserve from the other.  It produced an inverted carry to the futures market in both fats and feeders for most of this year.  With the recognition of the transition, futures traders have gone to work normalizing the carry spreads.  Today, fat cattle have about as normal a carry spread as has been in the past.  Even the higher April over June spread by $5.00 is normal.  Feeder cattle futures have been slower to revert back to carry, but the past two weeks have seen enormous narrowing of spreads with an expectation that before this year is over, carry will be normal. When throwing in politics, associations agendas, and the efforts to keep as many in business as possible, you need some leeway to help you see the forest, even if standing in the trees. 

 

In my mind's eye, the future of cattle prices may hinge more on economic developments than cattle themselves.  As fragile as the energy sector is, and government stimulation and debt phenomenal, I can see the economy running down the rail at lightning speed, as easily as I could see it derailing.  New contract highs to close the week in gasoline.  Crude was not be left out with its new contract high on Thursday this week and diesel fuel on Wednesday.  So, any pull back of these two is from contract high made this week.  The energy sector is believed the most fragile.  The DOE report this week showed draws in gasoline and crude oil, with diesel fuel practically unchanged.  Refineries ran at 98% of capacity, suggesting we used 100% of that and still had to draw on stored supplies.  Any escalation, of any of the military actions taking place around the world, has the potential to send diesel fuel to new historical highs.  The Elliott Wave theory, and technical indicators I use, suggest this is more probable than just possible. Grains and oilseeds backed off a little for some and consolidated others. Grains and oilseeds are in a bull market with expectations of higher prices.  The stimulation being applied through interest rate stimulation is expected to weaken the US dollar further.  This would promote the US export trade. Interest rates are expected to move higher as notes this week made new contract lows and bonds are on the cusp of. I could expound on these factors for multiple paragraphs, but the short of it is, there is a transition taking place in the relationship between cattle and beef, believed influenced by extensive inflation causing consumers to shift in discretionary spending habits

 

 “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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